With several electric vehicles coming to the market by legacy and new auto makers soon, analysts at B. of A. Securities expect that a “tipping point” for EVs will happen this year, although higher prices would remain a constraint. The year 2022 “marks the start of commercialization for electric vehicles … with many of start-up EV automakers launching/ramping new product and many of the incumbent automakers also beginning their product launch onslaught,” the analysts said in a note Wednesday. B. of A. analysts said they expects about 1 million EVs sold in 2022, rising to about 1.8 million in 2023 and 3 million in 2024, implying EV penetration of around 6% this year, 11% in 2023, and 16% in 2024. Tesla Inc. EV market share could fall to 19% by 2024, from 69% in 2021. Among “incumbent” auto makers in the U.S., Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. “appear to be the biggest share gainers in the EV market,” the analysts said, both increasing their share from mid-single digits to mid-double digits over the period. Moreover, 2022 will be characterized by the production ad sales ramp of Lucid Group Inc.’s Air sedan and Rivian Automotive Inc.’s R1T pickup truck, R1S SUV, and the electric commercial van. It also could see the launch of Fisker Inc.’s Ocean SUV, Canoo Inc. Lifestyle Vehicle, and Lordstown Motors Corp.’s Endurance pickup, the analysts said.
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