Mastercard SpendingPulse forecasts 7.5% back-to-school retail spending growth with department stores a ‘noteworthy winner’

Mastercard SpendingPulse expects retail spending during the back-to-school period from mid-July through Labor Day to grow 7.5% this year, excluding automotive. Department stores are forecast to be a “noteworthy winner” with sales up 13% year-over-year, and up 27.3% over 2019. And shoppers are expected to head back to stores with in-store shopping expected to be up 8.2% over last year. U.S. retail sales in May were up 10.5% year-over-year in May, excluding autos, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse. “The consumer has been resilient, spending on goods and increasingly services as the economy continues to rebalance,” said Michelle Meyer, U.S. chief economist at Mastercard Economics Institute, in a statement. “That said, headwinds have become stronger – including gains in prices for necessities like gas and food, as well as higher interest rates.”

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